The Revolution in the Ukraine has been growing for some time, spilling over when Viktor Yanukovych, President of the Ukraine, backed out of a deal to bring the Ukraine into closer ties with the European Union.
Recently, the opposition has burned 6 government vehicles and clashes between protesters and government forces have grown steadily.
We meet with Mike Tamoikin PHD, whom lives in the Ukraine, to ask what he believes is waiting for the Ukraine in the future and how the situation will develop.
1. Do you believe that the root cause of the protest was because Viktor Yanukovych, abruptly refused to sign a trade treaty with the European Union in November. Or was their an underlying cause?
For most people in the Ukraine, whom can analyze world events, refusing to sign an Association Agreement with the EU was a clear indication of which way the development of our country will : (1) the path of openness and responsibility of the president and government for their actions – the way the EU ( instant dismissal for a minor offense and the trial in the case of attempts to steal from the state budget or violation of law), or (2) the path of total corruption , violation of laws in favour of the protection of personal interests of the ruling elite – alas, Russia, since the beginning of Yeltsin, has moved along this path . Over the past six months, the government of Yanukovych assured the media that the Ukraine would only move in the direction of the EU and – suddenly, a week before the trip to Vilnius, after a 6 -hour meeting with Putin, Garant said Ukraine is unwilling to sign the contract in the proposed format. This, in my opinion, is the main reason of the protest.
2. Why do you think Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign the treaty at the last minute? Do you think it was due to orders from Russia?
I am sure that, as is normally the case in global policy, Mr. Putin was able to find a “weaknesses” in Mr. Yanukovych and thus persuading him to accept his proposed way out of the situation.
What we are actually seeing in action in regards to Yanukovych (?) : (A) it does not waive the Association with the EU, publicly stating that it is the only way of Ukraine , while ( b) he is really makeing moves in the opposite direction – towards protecting the interests of the ruling clans of Russia, which is now the epitome of Mr. Putin .
I am not a professional politician, but as an analyst – scientist, one can make his own observation. Mine is this: If the Ukraine were to enter the EU, Mr. Yanukovych and his entourage would gradually have to accept EU law, and as such change some Ukrainian legal rulings – and most importantly, really rebuild the type of thinking and work of all officials from top to bottom.
What this means for Mr. Yanukovych : not in words but in deeds (featuring hard – bribed EU parliamentarians ) , like to emphasize – the second day after the signing of the agreement with the EU he would have to start working on the most “ticklish” and arch-complex sectors – combating criminal income mega-zoom.
Namely starting criminal trials against Ukrainian corrupt officials, to find and arrest individuals involved in corrupt or illegal world activity, real estate and other assets of the relatives, associates and deputies involved in corrupt activity.
Yanukovych in the run up to 2015 presidential and parliamentary elections would be a complete disaster. To this must be added the special problem of Yulia Tymoshenko – when “EU law would become enforced”, I think Yulia in the very near future would expect freedom. In the current situation it would mean for Yanukovych losing the next election.
Finally, expected from the EU would be money – loans , too, which would mean a more effective control of expenditure.
A very different path in going via “Putin’s plan” – which we are already witnessing.
By the way, the media claim that the Yanukovich government has already received the first tranche of the Russian Federation loan in the means of $US 1.5 billion – They did not disclose this information with taxpayers.
Gas prices, Yanukovych managed to reduce by more than $ US 100 per cubic meter , but the government , the media pressed against the wall , awkwardly trying to convince his people that , unfortunately, a reduction in the price of gas is not possible.
I am sure that if the taxpayers of the country had been able to conduct an independent audit of even these hasty steps, by the ruling regime , would have reviled serious criminal activity.
As a result, what do we see for Yanukovych regime on the “Putin” scenario?
First, Yanukovych, by taking this path, won the support of Putin and hence will win the presidential election in 2015. Secondly, no corruption related turmoil for himself and his entourage in the foreseeable future. Third, Yulia will remain in Prison. Fourth, emphasizing this point: In the favour of Yanukovych begins to play a powerful factor, as historically the Ukraine was constituted mainly by a community of Ukrainian and Russian peoples.
For the population – especially the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, disoriented against the root causes of the differences, the path towards EU ably presented, would separate them from their loved ones and relatives in Russia. It turns out that a vote for Yanukovych for so many means to vote for Russia – it is just what suits the corrupt ruling elite : a large part of the electorate , yielding to this slogan , give their votes.
As well as the above, one should consider other factors that influenced the choice of Yanukovych at a meeting with Putin. Some media, in particular, argue that the Russian secret services have insufficient kompramata on “early” Yanukovych , specially known for its biographies. It is clear that the release of such material at the time of the election can greatly change the outcome. It is possible that Putin, during the meeting, showed their ability to do so, which in turn influenced his thought on the EU.
3. Do you believe this can be called a revolution? Is this the start of a new Ukraine?
I believe a peaceful resolution to this revolution seems impossible.
However, undoubtedly, the events should be seen as the Ukrainian people waking up to their situation and deciding they want a different out come. In the end, my answer to this question is yes, I’m likely to lean toward the conclusion that the current Maidan is the beginning of a new Ukraine. But – what it will be – will depend on the future actions of the opposition and Yanukovych.
4. Do you think Ukraine has an East to West divide?
Unfortunately, I must admit that the idea that Ukraine would divide into 2 camps may become a reality.
If it should ever happen, then my prediction is that, primarily in Russia, will begin a irreversible and very destructive processes. This is a very bad scenario for the EU economy (especially for financial and economic system – at least for political purposes).
5. Would you say the government put down the revolute in a brutal manner?
Unfortunately, I have to answer – Yes, the Ukrainian government is irresponsible and has reacted very badly towards a peaceful protest. Analysts suggest that the Yanukovych regime had incorrectly assessed the situation and countermeasures. Moreover, the way the security forces dispersed the demonstrators was both illegal and unconstitutional. This fact has led to a number of supporters attracting huge masses in Maidan, which was in the midst of a huge demonstration the following days.
6. Were the deaths resulting from this movement during protests, or calculated killings?
Professional analysts have undoubtedly seen the chain of deaths (as well as cases referred to severe health) evidence in favor of directing said killings.
With whom? My personal conclusion – the supporters of Yanukovich.
For what? Unfortunately, in his entourage he has several advisers whom need precedents for introducing a state of emergency. So far, fortunately, Yanukovych has yet to take this route.
7. Do you think the release from prison, of some of the jailed activities, was to assuage the protesters’ anger?
Yes, snap-laws. Amnesty International favour the fact that the government is trying to calm the situation with the anger of the masses.
8. What struck you as most shocking about the whole situation, when you went to the Ukraine?
This question – probably should not be addressed to me, because I live in Ukraine.
If the question be rephrased as: What surprised me most when I went to see the movement? I will answer this way: confidence in the eyes of the people to their cause, resistance in an effort to confront evil – in whatever positions and uniforms they do not dress up, to live and work in a more dignified (European) society.
9. Do you think there is a quick solution to this problem?
No, I do not see a quick solution . Why ? The situation is now very stalemate. Profit opposition means “move” a huge mass of corrupt officials Yanukovych in jail (in the case of the laws and principles of the EU). At the same time, the Yanukovych regime has already taken over and turned several laws in the past months, according to which the action “revolutionaries”, podpradayut, is now criminal and actions of the opposition leaders comes with a 10 year jail sentence.
The conflict has dragged in “big money” on both sides and part of the special services. Therefore, a rapid solution to the conflict, personally, I do not see it.
10. Would the removal of Viktor Yanukovych be a start on the road to democracy, or would he just simply be replaced?
Like any normal person I have hoped for a favorable scenario.
Personally, I can only see it if all parties involved return
to the legal and political field. Or, at least , with the participation of reputable intermediaries, would lead to a more gradual path, or “lesser evil”, for the country .
For many well-known politicians , this will mean the rejection of the stolen or public recognition of people guilty of committing illegal acts. There is the need to say that none of the existing parties now, unfortunately, have established a mechanism to attract the middle class and business – educated engineers etc.
Yanukovych’s idea, as shown by life under his rule, does not need this support – it creates a sort of Putinist authoritarian rule. But for some of the opposition leaders, this option is considered most appropriate. However, for this he needs a team and programme. And also – a powerful force to maintain the regime and keep the rest subdued.
As such in the current situation in Ukraine, no.
