In 2011 former Blue Peter presenter and tea time favourite Matt Baker presented a shock question to interviewee Prime Minister David Cameron on the One Show. Following a packed show covering royal wedding chit chat, the importance of happiness and whether an owl or a cat were better at hunting rodents, Baker struck Cameron with a question even the most polished of media performers would struggle to handle. Baker asked him with the exact same friendly tone he had earlier used to discuss the royal wedding: “Very quickly, how on earth do you sleep at night?” Of course after a slight hesitation as his mind processed the appropriate reply, Cameron responded like any well-rehearsed politician, going on to describe to the viewers that he sleeps just fine even stressing the importance of a good night’s rest for any successful leader. The response did the trick; Cameron dodged this politically charged question with a quick satisfactory answer – end of story one might argue, but what if the answer he gave was in fact a lie?

David Cameron certainly is not sleeping well. This isn’t because of the rise of the formidable Nigel Farage, nor is it because of his lack of control over his very rebellious backbenchers (although both these issues can’t help). Cameron isn’t sleeping well because in 2010 he failed to do what everyone thought was possible – beat Gordon Brown. It is very easy to forget four years down the line just how unpopular Gordon Brown was after thirteen years of New Labour domination. A recent YouGov poll found 32 per cent of those asked rated him as “a terrible Prime Minister,” an unsurprising result following a string of high profile media disasters, stories of his fierce temper being leaked to the press and even the well-publicised accusation that his economics during his time as Chancellor was a major cause of the financial crash. Yet despite this, the fresh-faced, environmentally friendly Cameron failed to lead his party to victory missing an overall majority by a significant 49 seats.

To outpace Mr Miliband in the 2015 election Cameron must raise his party’s share of the vote by four points or more – something no governing party has succeeded in doing in modern times. It is clear however that Cameron is not going to let political arithmetic take away what he feels is his. For nearly five years now he has had the prestige, the power, the international travel and the respect he has drawled over since his early days at Oxford. Yet he knows this has come at a cost, the result of a deal and many sacrifices. He isn’t yet the winner he always hoped he would be, with a coalition government holding him down on every policy, speech and reform. 2015 is his last chance to succeed, and he will do all he can to do just that. With Gove demoted, Lansley pushed aside, Hague making a spectacular exit from politics altogether it is obvious that the recent reshuffle wasn’t about gender, nor was it about loyalty; it was about Cameron and his desperation to finally win an election.

Failing to beat Brown was bad enough, but failing to beat his equally unpopular protégé Ed Miliband is something Cameron is unprepared to stomach. This election will be the most unpredictable, most expensive and arguably the most exciting election in modern times. Both of the two main parties not only have to fight tooth and nail against each other for office, but they are also battling against an unknown force of UKIP as well as the increasingly dangerous rise of political apathy. David Cameron has won all his life: financially, socially, and academically. Yet the one race he has always wanted to win he is still yet to do so.

2015 is his last chance to prove that he is still a winner and will be the only outcome which can restore his restfulness. Alternatively, if he loses this is likely to keep him awake for the remainder of his days – a thought that many people will no doubt relish in.