With just 20 days left on the calendar before the country decides, the pendulum is starting to swing towards a Leave vote
It was neck and neck. Remain then pulled ahead on the back of economic warnings. Leave are now ahead as VOTE LEAVE change their message focusing on immigration and sovereignty.
For months, even when ORB last week released a shock poll putting Remain ahead by 13 points, the Remain side were nervous, wary of a low turnout — that they’ve arguably created on the back of exaggerated economic warnings and disengaging and confusing economic reports.
Remain are now even more nervous. Helped by growing public concern over migration, stimulated by the release of the latest EU migration figures to the UK, Leave have now begun to pull ahead. In the same ORB poll a week later, vote Leave have now cut a 13-point poll gap to only 5.
Last night an ICM poll delivered what BeLeave claim is happening on the ground — the support for leave is increasing.
‘Project fear is not having the effect of terrifying the electorate into submission that the Remain campaign had hoped for’.
ICM released two polls using online / phone surveys (some people believe that overuse of online polls caused much inaccuracy in the last general election). Online polls have always been more favourable for the Eurosceptics. ICM Online put Vote leave ahead by 3 per cent at 47 per cent. But what was even more encouraging for VOTE LEAVE was the phone poll which put leave on 45 per cent, and remain on 45 per cent too.
Other Eurosceptic campaigners believe that a positive message has helped create support on the ground.
The polls are showing Vote Leave pulling ahead, and with the help of what many experts are predicting — a low turnout — they are the happier side. At this point, with the polls showing that campaigning is making a difference, it helps motivate our tired politicians.
For younger voters, though, they seem decided. The theory that you are either for or against the EU, and that your opinion won’t change, appears to have been discarded among many; but, for younger voters that may in fact be the case.
There haven’t been any exclusive youth voter polls since Shout Out UK’s, which showed Remain having a 70 per cent lead. So on the ground Remain are winning among the youth.
BeLeave admit that they have an ‘uphill battle to fight’ to persuade younger voters, but insist ‘it’s still all to play for’, adding that they won’t be complacent.
The message from the polls is this: VOTE LEAVE are pulling ahead in the EU Referendum, mainly helped by their change of strategy, which now focuses on immigration and sovereignty. Expect the Leave camp to also be helped by the upcoming televised debates. The momentum is certainly shifting and Leave are the happier with only 20 days to go.