Trump appeals to the abandoned and disillusioned blue-collar workers. If he can get their vote, he will get the White House
We spent the last year in denial. Ever since Trump announced his candidacy last summer, we said that he would never win the nomination. When it was looking likely that he would, we said that it made it a sure win for Clinton come November. However, Trump’s chances of taking the White House might be higher than we care to think. He has hit upon a goldmine of voters; the disgruntled blue-collar workers of America, who for the first time have an incentive to get involved in politics.
The election, as usual, will come down to a few swing states. This is where Trump has the advantage. Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are traditionally Democrat strongholds. However, they have elected Republican governors for the past six years and more Republicans than Democrats turned up to vote at the primaries in Michigan. A Republican candidate can therefore easily infiltrate here. These four states are Trump’s new stomping ground and he has a good chance of taking them because crucially, they are in the ‘Rustbelt’.
His message that politics as we’ve seen it for the last decade, has done nothing but screw over hard working Americans in exchange for glitzy trade deals with China, resonates here. Trump has done all in the Rustbelt to point out that it was the Clintons’ support of NAFTA that has assisted in destroying these industrial regions. The people there feel abandoned by Democrats siding with Wall Street and will be more than ready to stick it to them come November. Trump is the messenger for that. He is the protest vote to show Washington that they wrecked the American Dream. They’ll vote for Trump just because they can and because they want to rock the political boat that everybody has got so comfy in. People in these four states are angry, and similarly to how we saw here in the UK with Brexit, want any kind of change that might improve their lives.
All Trump needs to do to win the White House in November is carry these four states. These four states make up 64 Electoral College votes, a seemingly insignificant number. But, if we go back to 2012, Romney lost the election by 64 electoral college vote. Trump will take the traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia for the simple reason that they would never vote for Clinton. These traditional states plus Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin will place him on top. He doesn’t even need Florida or Colorado or Virginia, despite having a decent shot at them.
Something else too. Trump is up against Clinton, who’s almost as unpopular as Trump himself. Clinton vs Trump was originally thought to be an easy battle for the former First Lady; she would be unbeatable in November with him as her opponent. However, it seems to have been forgotten that she was beaten in 22 states this year by a socialist.
Despite her image being plastered all over billboards and TVs, Clinton faces a huge problem for November in terms of getting voters to the polling station. She will also face a turnout problem if she’s relying on the young vote. She’s banking on people living in poor, Black and Hispanic neighbourhoods to come out and vote when they have to overcome many more obstacles to cast a ballot than your average Joe in a small town in Arkansas. When we add to this the misfortune of almost losing to a socialist, victory seems even more doubtful. The millions of young people who fell for Sanders’ promises are looking for a reason to vote for Clinton, but she’s not giving them one.
Clinton is killing the youth vote, ironically, by being almost too experienced and safe. Take her running mate choice for example, she had the opportunity to do something exciting. Pick another woman, pick somebody who is more ideologically aligned with Bernie, pick somebody Hispanic. No, she went for your bog-standard, middle-aged white man with very centrist views. A youth that is already so disinterested in politics just lost even more incentive to show up at the polling station when Clinton won the Democrat nomination. And she needs their vote.
The following months will see a brutal battle between Trump and Clinton. But, if Trump can carry those four Rustbelt states, and he should be able to, the White House might be a lot closer than we think for this once ‘unlikely’ contender.
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