With less than ten days to go before America votes the evidence and predictions may speak for themselves
The race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton to become the next US president is in its final days, with the election becoming increasingly bitter.
From Thursday the 27th of October Republican nominee Donald Trump had 40 per cent of voters on his side, from States such as: Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Idaho, West Virginia, Nebraska, Kansas, Mississippi, Arkansas, Utah, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Louisiana, Alabama, South Carolina, Missouri, Tennessee and Indiana.
Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton has 46 per cent of voters. These voters come from states such as: Delaware, Vermont, Columbia, Hawaii, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Connecticut, Oregon, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland, Massachusetts, Washington, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, California and New Hampshire.
However there are some states in which the polls are so close that it is very hard to tell who will be the winner, these are called ‘Toss-up’ states. These states include: Maine, Iowa, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Texas and Georgia.
The presidential campaign has seen Trump, once a Republican outsider, close the gap on Clinton before falling back after a series of controversies. Trump has briefly pulled ahead a couple of times, the first on May 19. His polling threatened to consistently overtake Clinton in September, but has since fallen back.
But the question is why are the polls so close?
Both candidates suffer from unpopularity, both within their own parties and among the public at large. Some big Republican figures have refused to endorse Trump, while YouGov polling has shown that just over half of Bernie Sanders‘ supporters would back Clinton. New York Times and CBS News polling has shown that the two candidates’ popularity is limited by the public’s lack of trust with both of them. Just 33 per cent of Americans think Clinton is honest and trustworthy, compared to 35 per cent thinking the same of Trump. A further 57 per cent of people say they don’t share Clinton’s values, while the number is even higher for Trump, at 62 per cent. More people think Clinton has the right kind of temperament and personality to be a good president, while Trump has the advantage when people pick the candidate whom they think could bring about ‘real change’ in Washington.
How can demographics affect the poll results? Age, race, gender and education are all big dividing points in the presidential race, with polling showing that men and whites are backing Trump, while women and ethnic minorities are supporting the Democrats.
Race has always been a huge dividing line in the US election, and the clash between Trump and Clinton is no different. Just 17 per cent of Hispanics and three per cent of black people back Trump, according to recent polling. This could prove significant in the election. For instance, Hispanics account for more than a fifth of the population in four key toss-up states.
Education is another big demographic division in the race — and there’s a reason why Trump said he ‘loved the poorly educated’. Among high school graduates or those with a lower level of education, Trump has the backing of 44 per cent, compared to the 36 per cent who support Clinton. This could prove significant in the swing states of Georgia and Nevada, which both have a high proportion of people failing to graduate from high school.
Trump’s ratings have sunk as old clips have been released showing him bragging about sexually assaulting women. His polling had threatened to overtake Clinton in September, but a series of lewd comments which have been released have dented his popularity, particularly among female voters. With voting now ongoing and the end of the campaign in sight, there is now a gap of 6 per cent in points between him and Clinton. Many news publications and betting companies are increasing their odds on Clinton gaining the presidency.
Keeping all of these factors in mind it is predicted that Hillary Clinton has a 1/6 chance to win the election whereas Donald Trump has a 4/1 chance. Whatever happens all we know is that whoever gets voted into the White House will cause a great change to the political stance of the United States.
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