After a British election that was heavily distorted by the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system, with Keir Starmer’s Labour Party gaining a thumping majority despite only winning 33.7 per cent of the vote, there has been increased debate about the effectiveness of FPTP as a fair and democratic electoral system. However, the alternatives are far from perfect — as the upcoming German federal elections prove.
Representing the Majority
Germany uses a form of proportional representation (PR) in its federal elections: each voter will vote for one candidate in their constituency, as well as one party’s list of candidates in their state. Parties are then allocated seats in the Bundestag based on their vote share in the list voting, with constituency wins being ‘topped up’ by those on the party lists who did not also win a constituency, resulting in a Bundestag that is proportional to the vote shares of all parties who received over 5 per cent of the party list vote.
Before delving into the issues with this system, though, it is important to recognise its main advantages over more majoritarian systems like FPTP. For starters, it is more representative of the views of the voting public. Reform UK won more votes than the Liberal Democrats, but gained only five MPs in the new Parliament, while the Lib Dems have 72. This gaping flaw in FPTP means that governments can push through agendas with comparatively little public support. A more proportional system should arguably produce policies that are supported by a majority of voters, with parliamentary support reflecting external as well as internal compromise.
Another clear advantage of PR is that it eliminates the majority of wasted votes. I happen to live in one of the few remaining Conservative seats with a reasonable majority. While there were discussions and debates about the best tactical vote to remove them, and the majority was slashed dramatically, I have reason to believe that my vote at the next election will not make a large difference to the outcome. The fact that my MP remained in office despite the Conservatives’ biggest electoral disaster since formation, as well as the historical trend of opposition parties tending to gain votes off the back of governmental unpopularity, means that they will likely return with a larger majority in 2029. Under proportional representation, however, I could happily vote for a party other than the Conservatives with a greater degree of confidence that my vote would not be a waste of time. In the German system, it may not change the outcome at the constituency level, but it would contribute to a higher share of the party list vote and thus more seats in Parliament.
Too Many Cooks in the Kitchen
Looking at the upcoming German elections, there is one glaring issue with PR: Coalitions. The coalition formed between the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Green Party, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) broke up in November over reforms to the ‘debt brake’ limiting Germany’s annual public deficit to 0.35 per cent of GDP and triggering new elections. Parties that diverge on one issue can find it difficult to agree on a suitable compromise. Parties diverging on multiple issues, as is often the case in coalitions, are unlikely to be natural bedfellows in government. A weak and divided government riven with factional infighting means very little of substance gets done.
This hardly makes PR a model for effective government. Unlike the PR system, FPTP utilises the majority share, enabling governments to make sweeping changes. In Germany, the problem with PR becomes even clearer when considering opinion polls. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland — a party both the centre-right and centre-left have ruled out doing coalitions with, is polling at around 20 per cent in POLITICO’s poll of polls. This means that any coalition will likely be a ‘grand coalition’ between the CDU/CSU (the main centre-right party) and the SPD — not exactly two peas in a pod —plus another smaller party like the Greens. How such a government would be able to implement major policy changes over divisive issues like the ‘debt brake,’ remains unclear. Though recent Conservative rule in Britain has been characterised partly by internal party divisions, FPTP provides a large enough majority so that the dissenters do not hold the Cabinet to ransom. Under PR, they may be given outsized influence.
The Problem with Coalitions
There is also the question of just how representative coalition governments are. While they are made up of parties whose combined vote share represents a majority of the electorate, negotiations often result in parties, especially those with lower vote shares, relinquishing some of their key policies. Infamously, the 2010 Lib Dem manifesto promised to oppose any rise in fees. In actuality, the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition government almost tripled them. The Lib Dems virtually collapsed in 2015, partially because those who had voted for them five years earlier had seen how little the coalition achieved. Coalitions will almost inevitably alienate a section of a party’s voter base. Whether they ultimately succeed in commanding the support of a majority of the electorate is almost impossible to ascertain. In practice, therefore, PR may not be that much more representative than FPTP, despite it appearing that way in theory.
First-past-the-post is by no means a perfect system. It often returns governments with a larger mandate for change than they deserve. But as the case with Germany shows, the alternative is not always perfect either. Given the choice between a strong government and a fundamentally divided coalition, I would choose the former.
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