Birth rates in England and Wales have fallen to their lowest since records began in 1938. ONS data shows that in 2023, the fertility rate had dropped to 1.44 children per woman.
Additionally, the number of children born — which has been falling for the last decade — is now at its lowest since 1977. At the same time, the average age of first-time mothers is at an all-time high.
Greg Ceely, head of population health monitoring at the ONS explains that: ‘The decline in fertility rates has been the most dramatic in the 20-24 and 25-29 age groups.’
The cost of raising a child
More women who are of a traditional childbearing age are no longer having children or having less of them. While this data is alarming, it shouldn’t come as a surprise. Many young people simply cannot afford to have children in this economy. The high cost of living, unaffordable housing and stagnant wages make having children unthinkable.
According to Child Poverty Action Group, in 2023, the total cost of raising a child is the highest since calculations started in 2012. This increase has been attributed to higher prices caused by inflation and year-on-year shortfalls since 2016. The Times reports that in the UK, the average cost of raising a child from birth to 18 is £223,256, which includes housing and childcare costs. That’s around £12,400 a year, or £1,030 a month.
The Centre for Progressive Policy research reveals that young people are feeling the consequences of the Conservative government’s austerity program. Their findings suggest that this directly affected the trend in fertility rates in the UK, with a 10 per cent higher annual rate of fertility decline in deprived areas compared to affluent ones.
Salaries and cost of living
The average salary for 22-29-year-olds in the UK is £30,292. When broken down by gender, the same age group’s average yearly salary for men is £33,176, while women earn £32,292. This means that the cost of raising a child is nearly half a person’s average salary. For many young people, this reality prevents them from having the necessary financial security to start a family. At the same time, the average price of a first home in Britain is currently around £244,000. Prices are simply too high and salaries too low for children to be brought up in financially secure environments.
Recent research by the UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies found that only a quarter of millennials in England who want children are actively trying to conceive. Meanwhile, the cost of living was cited as a reason why so many millennials remain without children. Women were more likely to cite financial concerns together with work or study commitments for not trying to conceive.
Dr Alina Pelikh argues that the declining fertility rate highlights the challenges faced by younger generations:
‘While parents will naturally have many reasons for deciding on the timing and spacing of their children, it is likely that current cost-of-living pressures, with rising housing and childcare expenses, are also shaping the environment in which this group is making fertility decisions.’
Maternity pay
Additionally, wage disparities between men and women contribute to lower fertility rates as women feel more financial pressure from having children. Maternity Pay in the UK is generally better than in other developed countries. Eligible employees receive pay for 39 weeks of their 52 weeks of leave. However, SMP (statutory maternity pay) is paid at 90 per cent of your average weekly earnings only for the first six weeks. After that, you’re paid whichever is lower: £184.03 a week (the rate usually increases in April each year) or 90 per cent of your average weekly earnings. This means that if you take the full 52 weeks maternity pay the last 13 weeks are unpaid, unless your employer offers you an enhanced package.
When everything is taken into account, the costs of raising a child compared with SMP and gender wage disparities leave little room for women to relax and start a family. With 4.3 million children currently growing up in poverty in the UK (a figure that is expected to rise), the decision not to have children is a well-informed and ethical one.
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