Britain is Bucking the Populist Trend … But Only Just

Believe it or not, this is not a boring election. Yes, the result appears settled from the start, with little movement in the polls. And yes, many voters report feeling deeply apathetic, with high numbers saying they will not turn up on polling day. It is now something of a meme that the leaders of the two main parties are boring. But even those who have neat responses to the ‘boring allegations’ are missing the bigger picture. The immediate aftermath of this vote will determine the fundamental nature of the UK for years to come.

Wanting More From Our Politicians

There are usually two responses to the ‘boring allegations.’ The first is that after a hugely turbulent time in British politics, boring is a good thing. The second is to remind people of the significance of a potential Labour landslide after 14 years of Conservative rule. These are two equally valid responses, but they fail to recognise the wider political landscape.

The first treats dullness as a virtue. And there may be something in this. Boris Johnson’s personality-led political act made many voters smile until it became clear he was wholly unsuitable for high office. The Brexit saga, as well as the political and economic chaos that Liz Truss’ short-lived premiership brought, made many Brits weary of political ‘excitement’. After that chain of unfortunate events, many came to long for serious politicians who would quietly get on with effectively running the country.

However, people ought to be able to expect a little more from their politicians. There is a reason why the most talked about question at the final leaders’ debate was: ‘Are you two really the best we’ve got?’ Voters should not have to choose between charisma and integrity — great politicians at least try to have both. Of course, on paper both Starmer and Sunak are interesting; both are intelligent men with intriguing backstories. But there is no avoiding the fact that neither is a great orator or able to connect with ordinary people.

With a few caveats then, it is fair to say that the personalities in this election are rather unexciting (although individuals may feel that this is a good thing). But in historical terms, if the polls are right, polling day could present something unprecedented and revolutionary — a huge swing towards an opposition party which faced a near-existential defeat at the last election. This suggests Labour could, in theory, offer a radical policy shift. However, most evidence indicates this won’t be the case.

The Danger With a Timid Manifesto

The Labour manifesto is cautious, to say the least. Labour has committed to tight public spending rules and offers very little in terms of radical policies. Green commitments have been watered down, taxes won’t go up for the highest earners, and there are minimal commitments on child poverty. As a result, quite a few left-wing voters feel uninspired.

In this case, one could be forgiven for making the ‘boring allegation.’ The leaders are boring, the policies are boring, and the seemingly mind-blowing result has now been anticipated for so long that it also feels rather boring.

Ironically, the one person in the current political picture who cannot be accused of being boring is Nigel Farage. The Reform UK leader maintains a cult following, and despite his controversial views on the Russia-Ukraine War, holds a respectable third place in the polls. Reform UK will not win this election, and despite Farage’s claim of now becoming ‘The Leader of the Opposition,’ his party won’t be the second-largest. However, he may well win his seat, and Reform could take 20 per cent of the vote or more — and a handful of seats.

The real story of this election is not so much boredom, but frustration. Currently, most of that frustration is being aimed at the Conservatives to the benefit of Labour. However, if Labour fails to deliver the real ‘Change’ it claims it can, that frustration will quickly migrate towards Starmer’s party. The policies on offer could prove ineffective, anger about high levels of immigration may swell, and Farage will seize the chance to throw everything he has at a weak Labour government. As always, the media will give him ample coverage and all the attention he craves.

Are We Heading for Populism?

Research reveals how little loyalty people feel towards political parties. This was evident by how quickly Boris Johnson’s 2019 electoral coalition collapsed. Even with a potentially large majority, Labour would not be immune from this fickleness. And should that happen, the likes of Nigel Farage and George Galloway’s left-wing variant of populism, will be waiting to capitalise.

So far Britain seems to be bucking the wider European and American trend towards right-wing populism and is on track to elect a centre-left government. However, any serious letdowns could rapidly change the political landscape. Galloway, Farage, and those who support them won’t hesitate to do what populists do best: exploit people’s anger for their electoral gain.

Britain is teetering on the edge of this dangerous abyss. Make no mistake, the populists are circling like vultures, awaiting their moment. Meanwhile, short-sighted commentators complain about ‘boring’ politicians and Labour adopts the ostrich pose for safety’s sake.

If there is any hope of overcoming the rising tide of populism, Labour must be radical in office and significantly improve people’s lives. Otherwise, we will all be longing for a return to the dullness.

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