CDA leader Henri Bontenbal has said the Netherlands needs a return to ‘boring politics’ — the 2025 election suggests that most voters agree with him.
That verdict would have been predicted by a scarce few just two years ago, as the nation pivoted towards firebrand PVV leader Geert Wilders, believing he was the answer to the countless questions facing the country at the time.
Fast-forward back to the 2025 snap election, and the far-right PVV are no longer seen as saviours, but as anti-climactic failures. The populist party has seen its support drop from 23.5 per cent to 16.7 per cent in just two years, paving the way for the D66’s spectacular rise to power. Coalition talks will now be in the hands of the centre-left victors, meaning it is incredibly unlikely that Wilders will get anywhere near them.
Firstly, they will look at a ‘broad coalition’ featuring other big-hitters. By all indicators, the construction of a firewall against the far-right appears to be well underway. This mixed and competitive new parliament is a stark contrast to the vast total of 37 seats claimed by the PVV just 24 months ago. And though the far-right movement continues to spread across Europe, many Dutch voters have already firmly turned their backs on its ideology.
Why the PVV Collapsed
Wilders was able to rapidly gather widespread support for the PVV with his charismatic personality and simple bite-sized messaging. He identified the questions hanging over Dutch politics, and claimed that the far-right was the solution to all of them, like a magic wand capable of eradicating immigration worries, the housing crisis, and energy issues in one grand movement.
In hindsight, there was nothing mystical about the PVV’s short-lived time in power. Precious little was done about the problems deeply condemned by Wilders throughout his prior campaign, and few concrete plans were put in place to solve them. These statements of hypocrisy have tainted the reputation of the leader.
The 2023 coalition was born from a marriage of convenience, following a year of shaky, strenuous talks between people reluctant to work with the far-right. Despite this, the Netherlands was still left shocked as news of the PVV’s withdrawal from the coalition over an immigration row broke to the public. Wilders’ decision was described as ‘irresponsible’ and ‘unnecessary’ by then prime minister Schoof, whilst his deputy, Keijzer, went a step further, labelling it as a ‘betrayal of the Netherlands.’
By the 29th of October, as the Dutch public entered the polling booths, many appeared to feel let down — the result of a miserable feeling bred by the PVV’s inability to fulfil their promises. Just a day later, it became obvious that the centrist Rob Jetten could be the man to reinvigorate the nation. Optimistic, cheerful, and ambitious, he grabbed the headlines as he guided the D66 to election victory.
After two years of chaos and distrust, Henri Bontenbal is another contender challenging the culture of negativity, with the simple mission of ‘making boring great again.’ He regards Wilders as ‘a megaphone for dissatisfaction and anger,’ and has sought to fight him with an environment of positivity. In just two years, the PVV have gone from being viewed as the saviours of the Dutch political scene, to an entity that could destroy it.
The Future of Reform
In recent years, Europe has experienced a rapid and well-documented rise of the far-right, which has spread like wildfire by means of populism. The Dutch, having been singed by far-right rhetoric, may have already leapt out of the flames of radicalism. But the UK is another story.
The United Kingdom is presently feeling the heat. Reform’s rise has been swift, controversial and dividing. Some view Farage as exactly what the nation needs, whilst others see him as a ‘force of division.’ However, despite polar opinions, even their supporters admit that the party would be an experiment if left in charge of the country.
Uninspiring council performances have sown seeds of doubt into the minds of the public. Farage is still a man many believe Reform couldn’t live without, yet he needed eight attempts to become an MP, with previous projects petering out before they could truly take off. As polling numbers slowly decline but still dominate other major parties, Reform has many options to progress. For instance, they could soften their rhetoric pre-election, like National Rally, or even moderate, as done to great success by Fratelli d’Italia.
Even if Reform wins, their time in Parliament could be short-lived. Rather than tasting the sweet tones of triumph like Meloni, Farage could end up spitting out the cold, harsh flavour of capitulation, much like Wilders.
Like Reform, the PVV placed heavy emphasis on immigration in their bid for power, making big statements on how they would solve the country’s issues. Whilst the headlines appeared positive, it was the smaller print that troubled the party, as they struggled to implement their policies into action. Reform has so far done precious little to convince us they won’t follow a similar path. Startlingly, Farage’s policy is even thinner than Wilders,’ casting doubt on whether the party can genuinely find solutions to the catalogue of problems plaguing the UK.
Both parties have set the bar incredibly high through their use of populist rhetoric. In the case of the PVV, not only did they fail to leap over it, they crumpled in a heap on the floor when given the chance to show what they’re made of. Farage has promised great things should he walk into No 10 by 2029. But if those vows aren’t fulfilled, and quickly, impatience, anger and regret will likely spread. The PVV survived a year. Due to the volatile nature of Reform’s support and history, they may struggle to avoid capitulating if everything doesn’t fall into place as promised during their idealistic, immigration-quashing quest.
Polar feelings on Reform mean that opposition will be strong. But serious change needs time to be implemented. The PVV’s time in office highlights that the populist right-wing may not receive the time they need, creating an ominous feeling that Reform’s tenure could derail, crash and burn as soon as the same problems arise.
Could FPTP Save Reform?
The UK’s political system is rather unique. First past the post means that the country lacks the coalition culture that is a staple in the Netherlands, making a majority far more achievable. Farage is unlikely to find himself having to manoeuvre within a cooperative system that foiled Wilders. This and the fact that the UK’s other parties are at an all-time low, with Badenoch and Starmer appearing unable to compete with Farage, means Reform potentially has more breathing space.
That is presently not the case in the Netherlands. Albeit resulting from Wilders’ failings, the centre parties have seen a stunning revival, greatly contributing to the speed of the PVV’s downfall. Of course, change is possible before the 2029 election, but ‘stunning’ is a word few would attach to the Tories and Labour at present. It should also be noted that the PVV are extreme-right, whilst it’s unlikely that Reform will ever stretch those distances.
That being said, Wilders and Farage are branches from the same tree. Their charismatic personalities have enabled them to resonate with large sections of the population, gaining support through relentless campaigning. Both men also have a remarkable media presence for politicians. Perhaps crucially, both could prove to be more effective at their jobs when shouting from the outside in. Arguably, Frage and Wilders are quite brilliant professional critics, but in Wilders’ case, it has already been demonstrated that his talents end at that particular point.
A Warning for 2029
There’s a growing belief that Reform UK are the answer to the deep questions that trouble and afflict the United Kingdom, with 24 per cent of Britons saying they would consider voting for them at the next election. This belief is largely the result of the party’s simplistic populist messages, designed to seize the minds of the public. However, there is little hard evidence that Farage will be successful, and giving him the chance to try is to take a monumental risk that could backfire catastrophically.
He could still go the way of Meloni, but the more obvious comparison is Wilders’ PVV. The Dutch party promised so much, but delivered incompetence, with sprinklings of controversy guiding them down a fiery road towards self-directed capitulation and downfall.
I worry that Reform could meet the same fate, and perhaps others should share this concern. By voting for Farage, we enter a dangerous game of Roulette: Black solves the nation’s problems, Red sends the country into a spiralling crisis. But are things ever that simple?
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