American Election 2020 will surely be remembered in the history books.
Disjointed, and ambiguous. That was the story of the night and is this morning what threatens the stability of American democracy. Joe Biden leads by 13 electoral college votes, with both sides having clear paths to victory with nine states left to declare.
Mirages and Nightmares
The evening was one of mirages. Biden took an early lead in Ohio, only to fall significantly behind Trump once ballots cast on the day had been counted. In Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump leads, but only 81 per cent and 67 per cent of the vote has been counted, and as yet this does not include many of the early postal ballots that will favour Biden.
America’s nightmare of an inconclusive result, with either side being provided with enough support not to concede defeat, has arrived. Donald Trump this morning embarked on the path many feared. One that will challenge the value of democracy before the world and lead to days of disputed claims of voting fraud in state and federal courts. An hour ago he said:
‘Millions of people voted for us tonight, and a very sad group of people is trying to disenfranchise that group of people. We won’t stand for it. We want all voting to stop, we will be going to the Supreme Court. As far as I’m concerned, we’ve already won this’.
That is not true. It was always expected that in those states which count postal votes after those cast on the day, Trump would be disproportionately stronger, due to many Republicans distrusting mail-in ballots. Also, there are still enough outstanding votes to flip the lead the President currently has in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Without these two states, he cannot win the election.
Yet such a nightmare scenario has been enabled by an underwhelming performance from Joe Biden. From early on in the evening, it was clear that a blue landslide was not coming. Florida, Texas, and North Carolina all moved towards the Republican column. This was down to a lack of support from mainly Hispanic voters in these two states, with Clinton scoring better numbers in Florida’s urban and Hispanic counties four years ago.
A close win for Biden?
Underlining the disjointedness of the result though, the Hispanic support for the President stopped short of Arizona — where Biden looks set to score a significant victory in the largely safe Republican state. The results so far show Trump scoring strategic victories in crucial states, without which he would have no chance of remaining in the White House. These wins have narrowed Biden’s path to the crucial 270 electoral college votes needed, but they have not necessarily denied him the presidency. This could be an indication of Biden moving from landslide territory to a close win.
He can still rely on strong support from the upper Midwestern states. All now rests on whether the outstanding ballots in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania will be enough to overcome an early Trump lead. This most likely will mean a court case in Pennsylvania to determine the election result.
In a country highly divided, following a campaign where the integrity of the election has been challenged, this inconclusive result is a nightmare scenario. The potential here to further inflame tensions cannot be understated. America could be seeing a legal battle like no other; surpassing that which decided the 2000 election between Al Gore and Bush.
But where there is ambiguity across the electoral map, it reveals another Democrat misstep. Biden did not do as well as the polls, his party, or the media had expected. Democrats have been caught out once again by Donald Trump, relying now on the postal ballots of mainly white men in the upper Midwest and rust belt states of America. Compared to 2016, Trump has gained support amongst every demographic group except for White Men (Black Men / Women +4, Latino Men / Women +3, White Women +2).
The group so commonly seen as the drivers of Trump’s 2016 victory are now being relied upon to unseat him from office. In the Primaries, Joe Biden was championed as the candidate most able to win their support. Given the mood thus far, it looks like the Democrats may need additional support from the courts to ensure these precious votes are counted.
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